Project Scope

Quantifying the net financial effect over a 3-year horizon through a flexible budget impact model for a novel GLP-1 therapy

Challenge

The client faced strict budget caps since UAE payers were apprehensive about the immediate aggregate cost of a novel GLP-1 into the clinical formulary. We sought to support payer perception of budget risks through quantification of likely patient uptake and a realistic assessment of budget requirements

Solution

We developed a budget impact model to address payer concerns about volume-driven budget expansion.

• We mapped the patient journey and defined patient segments where uptake of the client’s product was most likely
• We further undertook a literature review and Delphi panel to generate local data for the UAE where data was absent
• We populated the model with UAE-specific data to accurately simulate realistic market uptake scenarios over a 3-year horizon and quantified the long-term savings generated by improved glycemic control

Results

• The model demonstrated that incremental budget impact remained within manageable payer thresholds
• By quantifying the likely absolute patient volume and the associated avoidance of long-term complications, the model successfully shifted the negotiation focus from "unit price" to "total disease burden management"